Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 234.534472 285.401950 348.414118 433.581145 547.864110 6.991971e+02 9.205566e+02
2025-07-20 183.495370 245.045742 331.665829 467.486183 685.254009 1.041181e+03 1.717657e+03
2025-07-27 152.838936 217.718248 317.740151 493.246692 818.344498 1.458054e+03 3.032627e+03
2025-08-03 130.730244 195.376165 302.185082 507.106412 935.575716 1.932616e+03 5.118929e+03
2025-08-10 113.502402 176.056544 285.212545 510.489459 1033.005379 2.450591e+03 8.369384e+03
2025-08-17 98.749180 157.590730 264.710541 499.033454 1091.376631 2.930996e+03 1.292580e+04
2025-08-24 86.992519 142.127674 246.114347 485.187457 1137.314617 3.434849e+03 1.986882e+04
2025-08-31 77.456371 129.082789 229.433905 470.354338 1173.899508 3.965551e+03 3.069466e+04
2025-09-07 74.758163 128.315120 237.249363 516.795398 1427.040100 5.850910e+03 8.265332e+04
2025-09-14 69.179314 121.058086 229.801169 521.776514 1548.435667 7.369097e+03 1.861621e+05
2025-09-21 65.348280 116.718512 227.912076 541.566276 1744.277038 9.958761e+03 6.395778e+05
2025-09-28 60.521670 109.671760 218.523181 536.758568 1838.789617 1.216325e+04 2.269151e+06
2025-10-05 59.160182 109.961964 227.134270 592.651661 2282.393808 2.052093e+04 1.624880e+09
2025-10-12 57.400154 109.153535 233.012337 643.522856 2783.034583 3.540158e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 55.181865 106.996371 235.011419 682.606517 3289.224763 6.072301e+04 NaN
2025-10-26 52.483498 103.365331 232.358250 703.762898 3724.868115 9.977640e+04 NaN
2025-11-02 49.533439 98.771923 226.198918 708.938847 4062.912416 1.561667e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 46.214035 92.922876 215.497379 691.418355 4191.259964 2.145303e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 43.134978 87.345525 204.746092 670.314540 4269.112884 2.887280e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 40.325802 82.157544 194.391059 647.793948 4312.345319 3.839112e+05 NaN
2025-11-30 40.092999 83.318978 203.263176 718.604066 5578.664626 1.687676e+06 NaN
2025-12-07 38.355536 80.488278 199.363836 726.250666 6118.445247 4.697527e+06 NaN
2025-12-14 37.217509 79.078000 199.743705 756.726872 7125.658337 4.021862e+07 NaN